• Home
  • News
  • Stamp duty holiday: The winners and the losers

Commercial Property Market Review

Commerical loans and business refinancing

Our property market review is intended to provide background to recent developments in property markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future.

Growth confined to the industrial sector

The latest UK Commercial Property Market Survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), reports 62% of respondents believe the commercial property market as a whole is in the downturn phase of the property cycle.

Projections for the retail sector remain in negative territory, whilst office rents are expected to see little change over the next three months. In contrast, the industrial sector, particularly in prime locations, continues to return solid rental growth projections for the coming twelve months in all parts of the UK.

Cafes and restaurants top the UK commercial property market

Analysis from Harness Property Intelligence, comparing price growth in the UK’s commercial market, shows that cafes and restaurants have outperformed offices and retail spaces.

The research took place between 2010 and 2017 and looked at key regional cities, including Liverpool, Leeds, Birmingham, Manchester, Bristol and Cardiff.

The figures show an average uplift in the price per sq. ft. for cafes and restaurants of 8.5% over the seven years, with Birmingham seeing the fastest growth at 15.8% and Cardiff coming in second at 10.8%. Liverpool and Manchester saw rises of 9% and 9.9% respectively and Leeds was the only city recording a small fall of 0.52%.

In contrast, retail space and offices declined in all the analysed cities, with the exception of Birmingham, where the average value increased by 11.2%.

Projections for the retail sector remain in negative territory, whilst office rents are expected to see little change over the next three months.

Investment in City of London commercial market increases

Savills has reported transactions totalling 1.24bn over 10 deals in the City in October, which is up 73% on September and the second largest month by volume in 2019.

At the end of October, the year-to-date transactional volume for the City totalled £6.17bn, which compares to £9.77bn at the same point last year and is only 2.3% below the long-term average of £6.31bn.

The largest transaction of the month was the acquisition of 40 Leadenhall Street, EC3 by M&G for a reported £400m, representing a capital value of £444 per sq. ft.

It is reported by Savills that current investors are long-established and appear to have long-term belief in the UK and London, ignoring any current political uncertainty.